Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
